The brand new marketing strategy of Brazil’s federal oil firm Petrobras is prone to be modified by the incoming authorities of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a supply near the president-elect instructed BNamericas.
Among the many fundamental modifications anticipated are extra refining capability and a extra aggressive insertion within the vitality transition, moreover its repositioning within the pure fuel phase.
“The concept is to monetize extra fuel by lowering injection and growing its use onshore, which would require new investments in offshore pipelines and processing infrastructure,” the supply mentioned.
The state-run agency’s plan includes capex of US$78bn for 2023-27, up 15% from that within the earlier marketing strategy (2022-26).
Beneath the plan, the exploration and manufacturing phase would account for 83% of the overall, down one share level from the earlier plan, whereas 12% would go for refining, up 3 factors.
Pre-salt stays the main focus, with 67% of the deliberate capex foreseen for the subsequent 5 years.
In the meantime, the Equatorial Margin is because of obtain 50% of the US$6bn exploration capex, in contrast with 38% within the earlier plan.
Along with the US$78bn capex, Petrobras seems to be to earmark US$20bn for the chartering of recent manufacturing platforms.
By 2027, the corporate is eyeing 18 new FPSOs, of which 11 could be chartered, six owned, and one non-operated. The 2022-26 plan foresaw the beginning of operations of 15 FPSOs, comprising 9 chartered and 6 owned.
The brand new platforms deliberate embrace the Albacora subject revitalization FPSO, the P-83 (Búzios subject), the Sergipe deepwater challenge’s second FPSO (Seap 2) and the BM-C-33 FPSO, a challenge operated by Equinor the place Petrobras holds a 30% stake.
The 2 Sergipe FPSOs might be contracted beneath the constitution mannequin and are deliberate to move pure fuel by means of a pipeline with capability of 18Mm3/d (million cubic meters a day) – an enterprise whose technical and financial feasibility is beneath evaluation.
After 2027, Petrobras intends to rent solely electrical FPSOs for the Atapu (P-84) and Sépia 2 (P-85) fields, with the capability to provide 225,000b/d of oil and 10Mm3/d of pure fuel.
Atapu’s unit might be related to 13 wells, and Sépia’s to 14 wells, with the subsea engineering, procurement, building and set up (EPCI) providers acquired by way of built-in contracts.
The Santos basin will obtain 11 new manufacturing models, whereas 5 might be put in within the Campos basin. With this, the basins are projected to be producing 2.2Mboe/d and 900,000boe/d by 2027, respectively.
The brand new marketing strategy foresees the drilling of greater than 300 manufacturing growth wells, the set up and assortment of over 8,000km of pipes and the decommissioning of 26 platforms (12 mounted, six semi-submersible and eight FPSOs) and a couple of,500km of risers and flowlines.
One other 27 platforms are programmed to be decommissioned between 2028 and 2030.
The manufacturing curve within the 2023-27 interval was lowered by 100,000boe/d in contrast with the earlier marketing strategy, reaching 3.1Mboe/d by 2027, with a potential constructive or unfavorable variation of 4%.
The extraction prices thought of in post-salt and pre-salt initiatives for the interval are US$10.7/boe and US$4.2/boe, respectively, whereas the manufacturing value thought of is US$33/boe.
REFINING
Within the refining phase, the precedence of the US$9.2bn capex might be vitality effectivity of Petrobras’ crops and better high quality merchandise with a smaller carbon footprint, with an emphasis on investments in biorefining.
The plan foresees investments in eight new processing models, along with six large-scale adaptation works in current crops. With these initiatives accomplished, Petrobras’ refining processing and conversion capability is predicted to extend by 154,000b/d, and its S-10 diesel manufacturing capability could be boosted by greater than 300,000b/d.
A brand new lubricant plant within the Gaslub hub is deliberate, in addition to a second refining practice on the Abreu e Lima refinery (Rnest) and a bio-aviation kerosene facility on the Presidente Bernardes refinery (RPBC).
The whole refining capability of the corporate is projected to be 1.2Mb/d by 2027, the identical foreseen by the earlier plan, primarily based on 5 crops positioned within the Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo axis.
Which means the brand new plan maintains the Abreu e Lima (Rnest), Presidente Getúlio Vargas (Repar), Alberto Pasqualini (Refap) and Gabriel Passos (Regap) refineries within the firm’s divestment program.
“The technique of sustaining the principle refineries and making certain structural modifications in these crops stays, particularly geared toward growing the manufacturing capability of S-10 diesel and the start of the formulation of R5 diesel, which counts on 5% of renewable diesel by means of co-processing,” Bruno Cordeiro, market intelligence analyst at StoneX, instructed BNamericas.
The analyst mentioned Petrobras apparently intends to keep up the gasoline import parity worth coverage (PPI), which pairs home costs with worldwide market costs.
“The query is whether or not they’ll preserve the technique seen in current months of readjusting costs with much less depth, inflicting lags in relation to the worldwide market, or whether or not this coverage might be reformulated,” Cordeiro added.
GAS AND ELECTRIC POWER
Within the space of fuel and electrical energy, the 2023-27 plan highlights the continuity of the commercialization technique for Petrobras’ personal fuel, with measures aligned to the will increase in capability ensuing from investments in infrastructure enlargement and the provision of pure fuel.
Petrobras’ fuel therapy capability is projected to develop from the present 66Mm3/d to 84Mm3/d, principally by means of the brand new processing unit that may start operations in 2024 at Gaslub.
In the meantime, the corporate’s regasification capability might be lowered from 57Mm3/d to 50Mm3/d.
When it comes to thermal energy, Petrobras plans to have technology capability of three.6GWa by means of excessive effectivity gas-fired crops by 2027 and 5.1GWa by 2030, down from the present 5.6GWa. The 2022-26 plan stipulated 4GWa capability in 2026.
SALES AND LOGISTICS
The plan states that the commercialization and logistics space will intensify operations in strategic markets in Brazil, whereas persevering with to develop and strengthen its operations in overseas markets by attracting new prospects and searching for the most effective alternatives to boost the worth of Petrobras’ oil and spinoff merchandise.
One other focus is the optimization of logistics infrastructure with the removing of bottlenecks within the circulate of merchandise and oil, optimization of inventories, and discount within the fleet’s emissions. The realm’s capex foreseen beneath the plan is US$1.6bn.
ESG
Within the 2023-27 marketing strategy, investments of US$4.4bn are deliberate for the corporate’s low carbon initiatives: US$3.7bn in initiatives that contribute to decarbonization initiatives of the operations (scopes 1 and a couple of); US$600mn in biorefining initiatives (renewable diesel and aviation biokerosene); and US$100mn in analysis and growth for brand new competencies.
The Petrobras carbon impartial program and the decarbonization fund have been bolstered within the new plan, with a price range of US$600mn, up from the earlier plan’s US$248mn.
In the meantime, Petrobras intends to develop its research within the new companies of offshore wind energy, hydrogen and carbon seize, along with biorefining.
DIVESTMENTS
To enhance operational effectivity, return on capital and money technology to make new investments extra in keeping with the corporate’s technique, Petrobras intends to divest between US$10bn and US$20bn value of property within the five-year interval.
Mahatma Santos, a researcher at Brazilian petroleum research institute Ineep, mentioned the announcement of the sale of the Isaac Sabbá (Reman) refinery, additionally on Wednesday, and the brand new marketing strategy reaffirm the present strategic orientation of Petrobras.
“As soon as once more, the give attention to worth technology and enormous dividend funds within the quick time period is reaffirmed, in addition to the continuity of the corporate’s disinvestment and deverticalization course of, with a robust focus on E&P, particularly manufacturing growth,” he instructed BNamericas.
Santos mentioned that regardless of the capex progress, the US$78bn continues to be decrease than within the 2019-23 marketing strategy, which reveals that the corporate has an solely short-term imaginative and prescient, prioritizing excessive dividends and debt discount.
“Between January 2021 and September 2022, Petrobras distributed to shareholders US$53.7bn, 70% of the capex now introduced for the subsequent 5 years,” he harassed.
Santos additionally considers the US$4.4bn capex for the environmental space too timid and too centered on decarbonization of its actions.
“The present administration appears to be transferring the accountability of constructing a marketing strategy that has as its object the vitality transition to the subsequent administration of the corporate,” he mentioned.
